A Measure Of Luck

by Douglas Zare
23 August 2000

Ne soyez pas superstitieux, cela porte malheur.
-- Tristan Bernard

(It's bad luck to be superstitious.)

Every backgammon player has seen outrageous or ridiculous sequences of die rolls. Most of us have been in matches where every risk we take is punished, and every risk our opponent takes is rewarded. Is it worth quantifying the amount of luck in a match, and if so, how should one measure it? In this article, we will look at a correct measure of the luck in a match. There are many interesting consequences of measuring luck correctly, and they aren't necessarily what one might expect
 

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