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The Price Of A Proposition

by Douglas Zare
1 October 2004

Douglas Zare

The Price of a Proposition

Propositions arise when players disagree about the value of a position. The simplest props are take/pass props.



Red to roll or double.

If you think the position is a take, and I think the position is a pass, I can pay you 1 point per game to take White's position, holding a cube on 2. If you should take against me, then you will win on average. If you should pass against me, I should win on average. (If I don't know how to play the position, you can take more aggressively.) We can play this position over and over, exploring the possible paths the game may take.

Props are educational. Rollout results don't tell you how to play a position. You learn a lot by playing it out many times. This will help you to remember the types of decisions you face later. Of course, the short-term luck usually dominates, and many players quit even though they are on the right side of a prop. After you play a prop, you should reinforce your understanding by analyzing the position and subsequent decisions with a bot.

Setting the Price

Suppose I feel the above position is a huge pass, and you feel it is a close take. If we play it as a simple take/pass prop, then if I am right I gain a lot, but if you are right you don't gain much. A fairer proposition would be for me to pay more than a point for you to take a 2-cube. What we negotiate may be more important than the skill involved. If we play a simple take/pass prop, then you have made a negotiation blunder. I might have been happy to pay you 1.2 points per game, so if you agree on 1 point per game you cost yourself 0.2 points per game

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Subject: Re: The Price Of A Proposition

From: Tom Wright Member has a photo available

Date: 02 Oct 2004 00:19 EST

Doug,

Excellent article! We play props all the time! PLEASE DON'T spread this information around!!!!!!!! It could cost me! :-)

Tom Wright-Director, Houston Backgammon Club

Subject: RE: The Price Of A Proposition

From: DadoHead

Date: 08 Nov 2004 19:20 EST

Interesting article, although I don't generally play props. A key point in negotiating was touched on in that you mention to have your opponent make his offer first. In general, the first person making a serious offer, e.g. as a buyer [as in the price of a commodity], is at a huge disadvantage in that he has set his own floor in that you will never have to accept less than that amount [which you may have been willing to do!]. As a seller, you set the ceiling by making the first offer. A rare case of backgammon logic applying to the real world ;-) . Keep up the good writing.

Frank Ley of Gammon Associates - Los Angeles.

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