Volatile Doubles

by Douglas Zare
31 January 2006

In a recent match, my opponent redoubled in a position similar to the following:

Red to roll or redouble.

Though the match score had some relevance, is it right to double/redouble for money?

Red has 19 hits that are close to gin, and both 5-5 and 6-6 miss, but give Red decent racing chances. Red is clearly the favorite, and does not expect to be able to get much use out of the cube after hitting. On the other hand, Red is behind in the race, and after most misses, Red will regret doubling greatly.

In this column, we'll look at potential doubles and redoubles in volatile positions like these, where hitting is close to gin, and missing usually leaves a race.

A Model

Let's study a model in which every hit is gin, and every miss leads to the same race
 

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Proceed to Step Two

Article text Copyright © 1999-2010 Douglas Zare and GammonVillage Inc.

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