Backgammon Brain Busters #69
by Michael Strato
21 March 2006
Strategy Talk
Is the computer program always right? As we have seen in the past, even the best programs get certain scenarios wrong while world class human players have a better grasp of these situations through the experience of years of play.
The "Brain Busters" series offers three new backgammon positions in each article, problems that we believe to be challenging and worthy of thought and discussion - please post your opinion on how you would play these positions in the forum thread below.
We will do their rollouts with Snowie 4 Pro and publish the results along with a new set of positions about once a week. Enjoy!
Note: See the rollouts results of all previous Brain Busters articles at this link.
Please give us your thoughts on these without the help of a bot.
Position 1:
| | ||
| Pip: 139 | ||
| 7 point match Green-White: Score 2-0 | ||
| Pip: 150 | ||
Position 2:
| | ||
| Pip: 26 | ||
| 7 point match Green-White: Score 0-2 | ||
| Pip: 21 | ||
Position 3:
| | ||
| Pip: 132 | ||
| 3 point match Green-White: Score 1-0 | ||
| Pip: 139 | ||
WARNING! - ROLLOUTS
March 28, 2006: Here are the Snowie rollouts for the three positions above:
Position 1:
| | ||
| Pip: 139 | ||
| 7 point match Green-White: Score 2-0 | ||
| Pip: 150 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 13/7 13/10* | -0.018 | |
| 0.7% 18.2% 50.9% 49.1% 15.3% 0.7% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.047 ±0.043. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 144 games (equiv. 3817 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 13/10* 8/2* | -0.077 (-0.059) | |
| 0.8% 22.7% 49.1% 50.9% 18.2% 1.6% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.019 ±0.039. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 144 games (equiv. 4715 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | R | 13/10*/4 | -0.093 (-0.075) | |
| 0.6% 17.4% 50.1% 49.9% 17.3% 1.0% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.000 ±0.039. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 144 games (equiv. 4633 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 4 | R | 23/20 13/7 | -0.268 (-0.250) | |
| 0.6% 13.5% 45.1% 54.9% 16.6% 0.6% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.128 ±0.036. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 144 games (equiv. 4770 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 23/14 | -0.232 (-0.214) | |
| 0.5% 11.9% 45.9% 54.1% 16.1% 0.7% | ||||
| Speed Parameter: Fast. | ||||
Position 2:
| | ||
| Pip: 26 | ||
| 7 point match Green-White: Score 0-2 | ||
| Pip: 21 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 5/3*/1 4/2(2) | 0.487 | |
| 0.0% 0.0% 76.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.519 ±0.002. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2880 games, played 3-ply (precise), seed 777, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 5/3* 2/off(3) | 0.404 (-0.084) | |
| 0.0% 0.0% 72.2% 27.8% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.443 ±0.004. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2880 games (equiv. 200174 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 777, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | R | 5/3*/1 2/off(2) | 0.324 (-0.163) | |
| 0.0% 0.0% 68.4% 31.6% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.368 ±0.004. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2880 games, played 3-ply (precise), seed 777, with race database. | ||||
| 4 | R | 4/off(2) | 0.169 (-0.319) | |
| 0.0% 0.0% 61.0% 39.0% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.221 ±0.003. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2880 games, played 3-ply (precise), seed 777, with race database. | ||||
| 5 | R | 5/3* 4/2(2) 2/off | 0.163 (-0.324) | |
| 0.0% 0.0% 60.8% 39.2% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.215 ±0.004. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2880 games, played 3-ply (precise), seed 777, with race database. | ||||
Position 3:
| | ||
| Pip: 132 | ||
| 3 point match Green-White: Score 1-0 | ||
| Pip: 139 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 13/5 | -0.164 | |
| 0.3% 9.5% 45.9% 54.1% 8.9% 0.1% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.075 ±0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 144 games (equiv. 6234 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 21/13 | -0.245 (-0.081) | |
| 0.2% 9.7% 43.2% 56.8% 11.9% 0.2% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.158 ±0.030. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 144 games (equiv. 7847 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | 3 | 13/7 5/3 | -0.430 (-0.266) | |
| 0.3% 8.4% 36.3% 63.7% 17.0% 0.6% | ||||
| Speed Parameter: Fast. | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 13/11 8/2 | -0.522 (-0.358) | |
| 0.3% 8.3% 34.2% 65.8% 22.3% 0.9% | ||||
| Speed Parameter: Fast. | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 8/2 5/3 | -0.552 (-0.388) | |
| 0.3% 8.3% 32.4% 67.6% 21.7% 0.8% | ||||
| Speed Parameter: Fast. | ||||
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1.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
eja
Date:
21 Mar 2006 21:19 EST
two men from 13 for 1 five to 1. 4to 2for 2 21 to 13
2.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
2SWEET
Date:
22 Mar 2006 03:55 EST
13-7/23-20 5-3/2off/2off/2off 13-5
3.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
alfie
Date:
23 Mar 2006 13:16 EST
1) 23-20 13-7 2)5/3. 2off(3) 3)21/13
4.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
FDR
Date:
24 Mar 2006 00:48 EST
1.) 13-10 8-2, put two on the bar? 2.) 5/3* 3/1 4/2(2) If I understand the stuff on stack-and- straggler positions in Walter Trice's Backgammon Boot Camp (which I may well not) you should be a strong favorite after that. If I'm totally wrong, please correct. :) 3.) 13/5 Have to make the 5 point. White has a four-point board.
5.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
SJ Baedke
Date:
25 Mar 2006 13:40 EST
1) It has to be wrong not to hit somewhere. The double hit 13/10* 8/2* is strong but not strategic enough. 13/10* 13/7 hits and prepares for a plan of filling our homeboard to trap white. I think 13/10* 13/7 is the plan.
2) Play it safe with 5/3*/1 4/2 4/2. After this we are ahead in the race and a big favorite to win.
3) The five point is the five point....so we need to make it. 13/5.
6.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
alfie
Date:
26 Mar 2006 06:21 EST
if you make the5pt,itsnot going tobe easy to bringthe3backmen,but if you establish the13thpt you dont rea
lly care being hit with a 1 (pb2)
7.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
jk_ace
Date:
27 Mar 2006 09:15 EST
1) Even though 13/7, 22/20 looks nice its not so strong we can pass up the hit for it - its a lot easier to win against 2 checkers back than one. Hitting 2 breaks our prime and white's forward position is almost as good as ours. Unless we blitz which is against the odds we'll end up with a weaker position. 13/7 with the six seems best. The other play I considered was 13/10*/4 which keeps the strategic mid point and starts a good point but leaves 18 returns plus loose hits with 5s - probably too much of a risk. 13/10*, 13/7.
2) I take 3 off. White will be off in 4 rolls (or reach recube) a lot more often than 13/36. 5/3*, 2-off(3)
3)While the 5 point seems obvious the 21 - midpoint combination keeps us in the game a long time even if hit, while making the 5 gives up the outfield to white and we're reduced to hitting a fly shot or rolling big doubles. we should use the stacks on the 8 and 6 points to cover the 5 when there's a good alternative. 21/13.
8.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
gudgen
Date:
19 Jul 2007 01:54 EST
I'm shocked,I got it right! For #1--> not hitting on 10pt. and playing 23/20 tempts my opp to make the 20-th point (apart from losing tempo of not hitting on pt.10!)If my opp has a 5 pt. board-now it's a 4 brocken,it's MUCH more valuable to him/her than My 5-th point prime-I have to avid this.My plan would be-hit, bring checkers to bear and make your 5-prime,I'll have time to extricate my men later. Fot #2-->I HAVE just the time to play safe!After being hit, my opp has 3 times*8 point (theoretically less than 8 pts on an average-7 1/2??) to pick a man,which will leave him with 3 men.Meanwhile I would have picked 4 men-no misses, and be favorite to win.Leaving a blot on pt.3 and taking off 3 men of pt. 2 would leave 13/36 chance to be hit immediately plus another 5 (44,11,22,41) in the next trow and being hit- here is NOT what we want.
9.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From:
gudgen
Date:
19 Jul 2007 02:01 EST
NOW, for #3:Making the 13 point leaves me in an inflexible position, and besides i need my 5 point badly! My 3-d man on pt. 4 IS my flexibility,I should be poised to attack the 4 point,should my opp venture to leve the anchor.So- 13/5.
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