Celebrating 15 years in backgammon games

Backgammon Brain Busters #69

by Michael Strato
21 March 2006


Strategy Talk

Players of all levels are invited to share their view on these interesting positions that we came across while honing our backgammon skills in match play.

Is the computer program always right? As we have seen in the past, even the best programs get certain scenarios wrong while world class human players have a better grasp of these situations through the experience of years of play.

The "Brain Busters" series offers three new backgammon positions in each article, problems that we believe to be challenging and worthy of thought and discussion - please post your opinion on how you would play these positions in the forum thread below.

We will do their rollouts with Snowie 4 Pro and publish the results along with a new set of positions about once a week. Enjoy!

Note: See the rollouts results of all previous Brain Busters articles at this link.




Please give us your thoughts on these without the help of a bot.




Position 1:










Pip: 139
7 point match

Green-White:
Score 2-0
Pip: 150








Position 2:










Pip: 26
7 point match

Green-White:
Score 0-2
Pip: 21








Position 3:










Pip: 132
3 point match

Green-White:
Score 1-0
Pip: 139











WARNING! - ROLLOUTS


March 28, 2006: Here are the Snowie rollouts for the three positions above:







Position 1:










Pip: 139
7 point match

Green-White:
Score 2-0
Pip: 150

# PlyMoveEquity
1 R 13/7 13/10* -0.018
0.7% 18.2% 50.9% 49.1% 15.3% 0.7%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.047 ±0.043.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3817 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/10* 8/2* -0.077 (-0.059)
0.8% 22.7% 49.1% 50.9% 18.2% 1.6%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.019 ±0.039.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 4715 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
3 R 13/10*/4 -0.093 (-0.075)
0.6% 17.4% 50.1% 49.9% 17.3% 1.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.000 ±0.039.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 4633 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
4 R 23/20 13/7 -0.268 (-0.250)
0.6% 13.5% 45.1% 54.9% 16.6% 0.6%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.128 ±0.036.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 4770 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
5 3 23/14 -0.232 (-0.214)
0.5% 11.9% 45.9% 54.1% 16.1% 0.7%
Speed Parameter: Fast.








Position 2:










Pip: 26
7 point match

Green-White:
Score 0-2
Pip: 21

# PlyMoveEquity
1 R 5/3*/1 4/2(2) 0.487
0.0% 0.0% 76.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.519 ±0.002.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout, 2880 games,
played 3-ply (precise),
seed 777, with race database.
2 R 5/3* 2/off(3) 0.404 (-0.084)
0.0% 0.0% 72.2% 27.8% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.443 ±0.004.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
2880 games (equiv. 200174 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
seed 777, with race database.
3 R 5/3*/1 2/off(2) 0.324 (-0.163)
0.0% 0.0% 68.4% 31.6% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.368 ±0.004.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout, 2880 games,
played 3-ply (precise),
seed 777, with race database.
4 R 4/off(2) 0.169 (-0.319)
0.0% 0.0% 61.0% 39.0% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.221 ±0.003.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout, 2880 games,
played 3-ply (precise),
seed 777, with race database.
5 R 5/3* 4/2(2) 2/off 0.163 (-0.324)
0.0% 0.0% 60.8% 39.2% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.215 ±0.004.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout, 2880 games,
played 3-ply (precise),
seed 777, with race database.








Position 3:










Pip: 132
3 point match

Green-White:
Score 1-0
Pip: 139

# PlyMoveEquity
1 R 13/5 -0.164
0.3% 9.5% 45.9% 54.1% 8.9% 0.1%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.075 ±0.031.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 6234 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
2 R 21/13 -0.245 (-0.081)
0.2% 9.7% 43.2% 56.8% 11.9% 0.2%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.158 ±0.030.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 7847 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
3 3 13/7 5/3 -0.430 (-0.266)
0.3% 8.4% 36.3% 63.7% 17.0% 0.6%
Speed Parameter: Fast.
4 3 13/11 8/2 -0.522 (-0.358)
0.3% 8.3% 34.2% 65.8% 22.3% 0.9%
Speed Parameter: Fast.
5 3 8/2 5/3 -0.552 (-0.388)
0.3% 8.3% 32.4% 67.6% 21.7% 0.8%
Speed Parameter: Fast.











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2.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From: 2SWEET   
Date: 22 Mar 2006 03:55 EST

13-7/23-20 5-3/2off/2off/2off 13-5

4.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From: FDR
Date: 24 Mar 2006 00:48 EST

1.) 13-10 8-2, put two on the bar? 2.) 5/3* 3/1 4/2(2) If I understand the stuff on stack-and- straggler positions in Walter Trice's Backgammon Boot Camp (which I may well not) you should be a strong favorite after that. If I'm totally wrong, please correct. :) 3.) 13/5 Have to make the 5 point. White has a four-point board.

6.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From: alfie
Date: 26 Mar 2006 06:21 EST

if you make the5pt,itsnot going tobe easy to bringthe3backmen,but if you establish the13thpt you dont rea

lly care being hit with a 1 (pb2)

8.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #69
From: gudgen
Date: 19 Jul 2007 01:54 EST

I'm shocked,I got it right! For #1--> not hitting on 10pt. and playing 23/20 tempts my opp to make the 20-th point (apart from losing tempo of not hitting on pt.10!)If my opp has a 5 pt. board-now it's a 4 brocken,it's MUCH more valuable to him/her than My 5-th point prime-I have to avid this.My plan would be-hit, bring checkers to bear and make your 5-prime,I'll have time to extricate my men later. Fot #2-->I HAVE just the time to play safe!After being hit, my opp has 3 times*8 point (theoretically less than 8 pts on an average-7 1/2??) to pick a man,which will leave him with 3 men.Meanwhile I would have picked 4 men-no misses, and be favorite to win.Leaving a blot on pt.3 and taking off 3 men of pt. 2 would leave 13/36 chance to be hit immediately plus another 5 (44,11,22,41) in the next trow and being hit- here is NOT what we want.

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Celebrating 15 years in backgammon games