Celebrating 15 years in backgammon games

Backgammon Brain Busters #70

by Michael Strato
28 March 2006


Strategy Talk

Players of all levels are invited to share their view on these interesting positions that we came across while honing our backgammon skills in match play.

Is the computer program always right? As we have seen in the past, even the best programs get certain scenarios wrong while world class human players have a better grasp of these situations through the experience of years of play.

The "Brain Busters" series offers three new backgammon positions in each article, problems that we believe to be challenging and worthy of thought and discussion - please post your opinion on how you would play these positions in the forum thread below.

We will do their rollouts with Snowie 4 Pro and publish the results along with a new set of positions about once a week. Enjoy!

Note: See the rollouts results of all previous Brain Busters articles at this link.




Please give us your thoughts on these without the help of a bot.




Position 1:










Pip: 194
9 point match

Green-White:
Score 2-0
Pip: 104








Position 2:










Pip: 196
5 point match

Green-White:
Score 0-0
Pip: 172








Position 3:










Pip: 99
5 point match

Green-White:
Score 0-0
Pip: 30





WARNING! - ROLLOUTS


April 3, 2006: This is the final article in the Brain Busters series.

Here are the Snowie rollouts for the three positions above:




Position 1:










Pip: 194
9 point match

Green-White:
Score 2-0
Pip: 104

# PlyMoveEquity
1 R 18/2* 1.683
8.0% 75.1% 88.2% 11.8% 1.2% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.581 ±0.036.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3267 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
2 R 18/10 7/3 6/2* 1.674 (-0.009)
9.5% 76.5% 87.7% 12.3% 2.6% 0.2%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.586 ±0.043.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2856 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
3 R 18/14 13/9 7/3 6/2* 1.674 (-0.010)
8.9% 75.7% 87.2% 12.8% 1.0% 0.1%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.578 ±0.038.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2482 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
4 R 18/10 13/9 6/2* 1.655 (-0.028)
8.9% 73.7% 87.4% 12.6% 1.7% 0.1%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.556 ±0.038.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3052 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
5 R 18/14 6/2*(3) 1.623 (-0.061)
7.3% 74.9% 86.0% 14.0% 1.7% 0.2%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.522 ±0.045.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3571 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.








Position 2:










Pip: 196
5 point match

Green-White:
Score 0-0
Pip: 172

# PlyMoveEquity
1 R 23/18* 10/9 0.906
7.1% 43.2% 72.3% 27.7% 4.2% 0.3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.903 ±0.057.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 1623 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
2 R 23/18*/17 0.876 (-0.029)
6.5% 43.7% 71.3% 28.7% 4.4% 0.3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.880 ±0.058.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2094 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
3 R 9/3* 0.858 (-0.048)
8.4% 41.6% 70.5% 29.5% 5.3% 0.2%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.855 ±0.049.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2442 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
4 R 23/18* 9/8 0.838 (-0.068)
6.4% 41.3% 70.6% 29.4% 4.3% 0.1%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.846 ±0.060.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 1707 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
5 R 23/18* 22/21 0.825 (-0.080)
7.1% 42.3% 70.2% 29.8% 5.1% 0.3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.844 ±0.050.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3321 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
6 R 24/18* 0.780 (-0.126)
7.3% 38.8% 69.2% 30.8% 4.5% 0.3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.798 ±0.056.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 1813 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.








Position 3:










Pip: 99
5 point match

Green-White:
Score 0-0
Pip: 30

# PlyMoveEquity
1 R 17/9 1.313
0.2% 38.0% 91.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.217 ±0.009.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
576 games (equiv. 21972 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
2 R 17/11 3/1 1.230 (-0.083)
0.2% 33.5% 90.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.153 ±0.009.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
576 games (equiv. 21060 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.











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Feedback about this article:

2.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #70
From: Ryno_11   
Date: 28 Mar 2006 23:54 EST

#1) 44:6/2(3) 18/14 #2) 51:23/18 22/21 #3) 62:17/11 11/9 , sometimes you have to risk big to win big

4.
Subject: Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #70
From: jk_ace
Date: 30 Mar 2006 09:40 EST

1) 18/2*. with so many on the 7 and 8 and the 2 stragglers it doesnt seem right to switch points.

2) 23/18*, 9/8. priming, not blitzing.

3) 17/8. As FDR points out it less shots AND closer to home.

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Celebrating 15 years in backgammon games