by Douglas Zare
1 May 2006

In Hoyle's 1745 work,
"A Short Treatise On the Game of Back-Gammon," he covered many topics relevant to modern backgammon. In
Chapter 7,
he asked how likely it is to win a gammon after closing out one checker,
when your opponent has 6 checkers to bring in plus the checker on the bar.
His answer was that you win about 50% gammons
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