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Error Distribution

by Douglas Zare
1 June 2006

Douglas Zare

When I make a really bad play, I study the position carefully until I understand the conceptual mistake I made. Afterwards, I sometimes get nightmares about my mistake.

In the position below, I split with 24/23 13/9, but that's not even the best split, and all splits are blunders. Oops

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Subject: Re: Error Distribution

From: roderick Member has a photo available

Date: 07 Jun 2006 10:54 EST

Doug,

nice. How did you get the data for the breakdown of your error rate from snowie? Also, what was the EMG on your cube play?

Rod

Subject: Re: Error Distribution

From: zare

Date: 08 Jun 2006 22:31 EST

This wasn't a standard Snowie output. I went through the matches by hand, recording all errors.

I didn't tally the results from my cube errors, but I did note that they confirmed the conclusions of my previous article: Although I made some large cube errors, the total equity given up through checker play errors is much larger, either when measured in EMG or mwc.

By the way, to clarify another question I received, the mistake I made in the diagrammed position is not a huge blunder. Rollouts said 13/9 24/23 cost only 0.147. However, it was a large conceptual error.

Douglas Zare

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