by Jake Jacobs
10 August 2008

A recent letter from one of my regular correspondents expressed surprise that a certain logical assumption he had made about races turned out to be wrong. My friend assumed that if a ten-percent race lead meant seventy-five percent winning chances that would be true regardless of the pip count. My friend is often surprised by things that have been common knowledge for decades, so last month working under time pressure I thought I'd whip up a couple of illustrative positions, and explain why as the race lengthened the pip percentage needed to win grew smaller.
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Forget about formulae (s). Use doubt, tension and pressure. Just double or redouble when you are up 10% and go get a glass of water if you are playing Bill Davis!
Hi Ray:
It wasn't Bill who used five counts, it was an intermediate player bending Bill's ear one night at Pat's Pub (paleolithic site of the Bar Point Club). Luckily, were I waiting for a player like that to finish counting, I wouldn't have to rely on water; Pat's served beer.
I watched a player once (not sure what count he was using) pondering a borderline double/no double (based upon the score). After ten minutes, he rolled. He and his opponent both rolled the same number of pips. Uh oh! Ten minutes later, he rolled. He and his opponent each rolled the same number of pips. I walked away. I watched David Wells play three games in a match at the next table. I returned to find the player still thinking about D vs No D, Round 3.
That was the great thing about the beer at Pat's: not only did drinking it relieve stress, but it came in heavy duty bottles from Holland, so that if you needed to chastise someone for excessive pip counting, they didn't shatter.
Best,
Jake
Taking some good advice from Perry Gartner, I have been using the Walter Trice formula most of the time, making adjustments, of course, for distribution, crossovers, and the strength of my opponent, and have found that most of the time I am pretty much right on with the bots.
As I am new to backgammon (been playing regularly at a lower club standard) and this subject of racing formulae, I understand the article is for intermediate advance level players, however would there be a format or approach to writing an overview of racing formulae without the actual mathematic formula itself given or the formula being broken down for non mathematicians.
I have continued to search this subject as the doubling cube is one of areas I find most difficult currently. The Kleinian table was most useful.
Regards
markeemark UK
Dear Mark:
I'm not sure I understand the question: an article on the formulas without the formulas?
Goggling something like "Backgammon + racing formula" ought to turn up a smorgasbord. Add names like: Robertie, Thorp, Magriel, Trice, Kleinman, Bower, Ward. All of them either developed formulas or have written discussions of them.
In general what all of them bring to the party is a set of adjustments to the count, such as adding two pips for each extra crossover.
Best.
Jake Jacobs
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