Delving Into Match Play - Match 14 - Game 7

by Jay Bidal
3 February 2009

Jay Bidal

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Jay Bidal is a Canadian expatriate living in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates where he teaches English at Zayed University.

Jay has been playing and studying backgammon seriously for the last several years and has won first place at the 2008 and 2005 Abu Dhabi Ramadan tournaments. He plays mostly online on the FIBS backgammon server as jaysbird. His immediate goal is to become the best player in the Gulf region and the Middle East.

This column is aimed at intermediate players who wish to improve their play by improving their thinking, but hopefully players of all levels will be able to benefit to some degree. One difference this time around is that I would like to solicit matches from you, the readers, as basis for future columns.

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Subject: Re: Delving Into Match Play - Match 14 - Game 7

From: jk_ace

Date: 03 Feb 2009 12:14 EST

Hi Jay,

Interesting game. On green's roll 5 I would step up to the white's 4 point (and make greens 5) despite the large racing deficit - better outfield coverage, double 5 chances. It didn't make the top 5 (only 0.004 from #1) but I was wondering by how much it missed.

Also btw, -3 to -1 (crawford) is only a 25% chance. Its -2 to -1 (crawford) that's 30%.

Thanks,

John

Subject: Re: Delving Into Match Play - Match 14 - Game 7

From: roderick Member has a photo available

Date: 03 Feb 2009 20:07 EST

Move 3 Green.... making the 22 point anchor is 0.050 better on a rollout..... the outfield point does little to assist in containing one checker while the 22 point anchor prevents the possibility of a blitz.

Move 5 White.... while the 4 point is better, the 9 point is only 0.027 worse in a rollout. It prevents the lucky double 6's from essentially turning the game into a close one. I suspect that in a longer rollout that it becomes even closer or even better. Will start that now.

Subject: Re: Delving Into Match Play - Match 14 - Game 7

From: bedu

Date: 06 Feb 2009 02:14 EST

Thanks for the interest, guys. John, I'm afraid the move 22/20 (2) doesn't even make the top 20, and we're talking equities of -.167 by then. The pip deficit is simply too large at this point to play for racing equity. Thanks for the correction to the match equities--I took the values from a website where the formatting of the table was off-kilter and read it too quickly. Thanks for the rollouts, roderick--once again, the value of an anchor should not be underestimated. As for the 4-2, I put the two point-making options through a full cubeful rollout and the difference was certainly less, but still a mistake--a (-.052) evaluation for the outfield point. It's simply too important to pass up the opportunity to make the 4 point and unstack the 6 point. I suppose the evolution of this column is pointing towards rollouts--the audience is clearly expecting more sophistication!

Subject: Re: Delving Into Match Play - Match 14 - Game 7

From: jk_ace

Date: 06 Feb 2009 15:38 EST

Jay,

Thanks for the response. I guess I should be more clear since I wasn't suggesting 22/20(2) for green roll 5, but 22/21(2), 6/5(2) (making our 5 pt and their 4 pt) as sort of a compromise play. I guess I really should get Snowie.

Thanks,

John

Subject: Re: Delving Into Match Play - Match 14 - Game 7

From: bedu

Date: 06 Feb 2009 22:57 EST

I put 22/21 (2) 6/5(2) through a full cubeful rollout (324 trials), John, and similar results came out--it's rated as a large blunder. The gaps on the 4 and 5 points are thorns in White's side, so Green doesn't want to fill one of them himself, especially being so far behind in the race. Cheers, Jay

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