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Desperate Races

by Douglas Zare
1 February 2010

Douglas Zare

We often have to estimate the chance to win a race with a 20-25% chance to win because that's when we get doubled. A good rule of thumb is that in a race of medium length, the trailer can take for money (with about 22% chance to win) when the player on roll leads by 10% plus 2 pips. Each pip near the take/pass point is worth about 2%. This heuristic fails for more lopsided races where the trailer wins under 15%, which can be important for cube decisions in match play.

In this column, we'll see a simple, computable racing formula due to Danny Kleinman. We'll use it to analyze a checker play decision which depends on correctly evaluating two desperate races.

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Subject: Re: Desperate Races

From: *Stick*

Date: 02 Feb 2010 11:40 EST

Is there a reason you don't post the dice when the player has a roll to play?

Subject: Re: Desperate Races

From: roderick Member has a photo available

Date: 03 Feb 2010 00:45 EST

The positions are each after the 5-4 has been taken. No checker play decision is being weighed.

Subject: Re: Desperate Races

From: zare

Date: 03 Feb 2010 09:43 EST

In the first position, I'd like to show dice, but I'm still using the Board-o-Matic diagrams and I don't know how to show dice in the html code. So, I always state any dice in the caption.

Douglas Zare

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