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3 Away, 4 Away

by Stick
25 May 2010

Stick

This month we're covering the most confusing score there is for both players, -3 -4. I have seen this score botched, blundered, and butchered on numerous occasions by some of the world's best players. In fact, the large part of my examples will be taken from matches of current Giants. I won't be naming any names but you can be comforted by the fact that even those considered to be the world's best don't have a firm grip on this score.

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Subject: Re: 3 Away, 4 Away

From: afeld

Date: 01 Jun 2010 17:59 EST

Hi Stick, your article series re, match-cubes is great and is now the new standard read :-)

( I would appreciate if you would write a little bit more about score related TGTD patterns.)

To your last position (no. 4): Different to pos. 3 the gammon threat is here not so high. White is on the bar, may dance and has only some indirekt shots which will most likely lead to a holding game. Re. score white's threat is to come to the not so impressive -2-3. On the other hand black reaches CF with a win. Therefore B has an easy take. The race is even, the position not far from even, the treats are not very decisive:

ND/T

Greetings from Berlin :-)

Subject: Re: 3 Away, 4 Away

From: ROQREGA

Date: 23 Sep 2010 09:19 EST

Stick,

please post the promised rollout of the last position. I agree with much of what the gentleman from Germany has said about the nature of the position, medium gammon threat, etc. But he has ignored the weakness of the absence of a mid point and the attendant disconnectivity . Therefore, i see it as a double and a take because Additionally, I imagine that in the variations where the 3 away player doesn't get his 20 anchor he faces a significant gammon threat. Therefore i would guess slightly less than 20% Gs and slightly lower than 60% wins.

This makes it a strong double, but a take because 3 away player has attack chances of his own and may end up in a decent holding game.

Please post the rollout results as you promised. that is why i pay gammon village subscription

Jason

Subject: Re: 3 Away, 4 Away

From: *Stick*

Date: 23 Sep 2010 13:50 EST

Thanks for the reminder Jason, sometimes I just forget with so much backgammon stuff floating around for me to do.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	55.85% (G: 18.75% B: 3.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.15% (G: 15.52% B: 1.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56.08% (G: 19.52% B: 5.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43.92% (G: 16.50% B: 3.24%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.092
Double:	+0.588

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.395 (-0.011)
Double/Take:	+0.406
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.594)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24983242 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0.013 (+0.382...+0.408)
Confidence Double:	± 0.018 (+0.387...+0.424)

Double Decision confidence:	82.7%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes