Strategic Choices - Calculated Risks For Large Benefits

by Steve Sax
26 January 2001

Steve Sax

Michael Strato: Well, here is a different twist in Position 4. Snowie rejects the move that I think many players would make naturally in fear of a joker roll. Without batting an eye, I would have gone with the move that Snowie rates sixth, Play # 6 - 13/8 7/4 and you also preferred this move.

What is Snowie trying to tell us here by suggesting Play 1 - 8/5 7/2 as best? (If the answer is more gammon possibilities, then isn't it also true that when you are close to bearing off it is dangerous to have too many of your opponent's checkers on the bar?)

Move 20 Green
		Pip: 132
		Game 3 7 point match Green-White: Score 2-4
		Pip: 80

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	8/5 7/2	55.31%
			4.1% 45.5% 83.0% 17.0% 1.2% 0.1%
	2	3	8/3 7/4	55.01% (-0.30%)
			4.0% 44.9% 82.6% 17.4% 1.2% 0.1%
	3	3	13/10 7/2	54.35% (-0.96%)
			3.4% 42.3% 82.9% 17.1% 0.9% 0.1%
	4	3	8/3 8/5	53.92% (-1.39%)
			4.0% 44.1% 80.7% 19.3% 2.4% 0.2%
	5	3	13/10 8/3	53.65% (-1.66%)
			3.3% 42.1% 81.7% 18.3% 2.5% 0.2%
*	6	3	13/8 7/4	52.86% (-2.45%)
			2.3% 37.6% 82.7% 17.3% 0.8% 0.1%

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Steve Sax: In Position 4, I chose the ultra "safe" Play 6 - (13-8 7-4) as opposed to the more adventurous Play 1 (8-5 7-2). In retrospect, I wish I had chosen Play 1. While it leaves two immediate shots the upside of sending a second checker to the bar at this score far outweighs any risk

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