by Douglas Zare
2 September 2010

One backgammon milestone I have yet to accomplish is winning in real play after closing out my opponent's 15th checker. I have practiced for this possibility, but my style of play does not lead to as many backgames and desperate ace point games which lead to hitting the last checker.
Walter Trice assured me that it is possible, and that he often won after hitting the last checker. One reason is that he played many 1-point matches such as in the Nackgammon tournaments on GameGrid. When the game can't be ended by a cube, and there is no penalty for being backgammoned, it is natural to hit the 15th checker more often. There is often a lot of equity at stake at Double Match Point, and I hope my first win after hitting the 15th checker will be in the finals of a tournament.
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Excellent article on what I feel is an important but neglected topic. I notice that you seem to be assuming DMP throughout. I hope you will also discuss at some point the cube action, assuming a money game with Red holding the cube. (At what point should Red recube? Does the cube influence the checker play?) The money-game scenario is not that unrealistic since it can arise from a coup classique gone partly wrong (White doesn't roll an ace but Red does).
Thanks. In these initial situations, I used DMP values because I think these situations occur most often at DMP. Since it is far from a cube for Red, the right play for DMP will generally be the right play for money. Rolling it out for money may introduce errors where the bot's future cube action is questionable even if its checker play is good. I will look at cubes from both sides in the future.
Douglas Zare
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