by Ash Dalvi
16 February 2012
Positions where the doubler has 2 checkers behind a 4 prime and the taker has a man on the bar occur quite frequently.
In this article, I will show some basic reference positions and a method of calculating variations of these.
My aim is to figure out the value of additional alterations from basic reference positions.
Furthermore, it is important to determine which of these alterations consistently retain their values across different position-types.
|on roll, cube action?|
|Analyzed in Rollout|
|Player Winning Chances:||63.05% (G: 27.49% B: 0.41%)|
|Opponent Winning Chances:||36.95% (G: 6.43% B: 0.29%)|
|Player Winning Chances:||63.53% (G: 27.40% B: 0.48%)|
|Opponent Winning Chances:||36.47% (G: 6.64% B: 0.34%)|
|No Double:||+0.651 (-0.028)|
|Best Cube action: Double / Take|
|1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.|
Dice Seed: 21637437
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|Confidence No Double:||± 0.013 (+0.638...+0.664)|
|Confidence Double:||± 0.017 (+0.662...+0.696)|
|Double Decision confidence:||99.4%|
|Take Decision confidence:||100.0%|
|Duration: 20 minutes 07 seconds|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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Article text Copyright © 1999-2013 Ash Dalvi and GammonVillage Inc.
Do you know how to print this article without the diagrams being split between pages?
I've modified the article so positions should no longer be cut in half during printing.
Frank Williams GammonVillage Inc.
It works - thanks!
As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a great series of articles. If anyone doubts the practical value of these reference positions, here's a cube decision that came up in the 8th game of the 2012 Monte Carlo World Championship final:
I don't think that Nevzat would have missed this double if he had known Ash Dalvi's reference positions!
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