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Strategy Talk
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Players of all levels are invited to share their view on these interesting positions that we came across while honing our backgammon skills in match play. Is the computer program always right? As we have seen in the past, even the best programs get certain scenarios wrong while world class human players have a better grasp of these situations through the experience of years of play. The "Brain Busters" series offers three new backgammon positions in each article, problems that we believe to be challenging and worthy of thought and discussion - please post your opinion on how you would play these positions in the forum thread below. We will do their rollouts with Snowie 4 Pro and publish the results along with a new set of positions about once a week. Enjoy! Note: See the rollouts results of all previous Brain Busters articles at this link.
Please give us your thoughts on these without the help of a bot.
Position 1:
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| Pip: 194 |
9 point match
Green-White:
Score 2-0 |
| Pip: 104 |
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Position 2:
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| Pip: 196 |
5 point match
Green-White:
Score 0-0 |
| Pip: 172 |
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Position 3:
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| Pip: 99 |
5 point match
Green-White:
Score 0-0 |
| Pip: 30 |
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WARNING! - ROLLOUTS
April 3, 2006: This is the final article in the Brain Busters series.Here are the Snowie rollouts for the three positions above:
Position 1:
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| Pip: 194 |
9 point match
Green-White:
Score 2-0 |
| Pip: 104 |
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| # |
Ply | Move | Equity |
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1 |
R |
18/2* |
1.683 |
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8.0% 75.1% 88.2% 11.8% 1.2% 0.0% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.581 ±0.036.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3267 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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2 |
R |
18/10 7/3 6/2* |
1.674 (-0.009) |
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9.5% 76.5% 87.7% 12.3% 2.6% 0.2% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.586 ±0.043.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2856 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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3 |
R |
18/14 13/9 7/3 6/2* |
1.674 (-0.010) |
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8.9% 75.7% 87.2% 12.8% 1.0% 0.1% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.578 ±0.038.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2482 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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4 |
R |
18/10 13/9 6/2* |
1.655 (-0.028) |
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8.9% 73.7% 87.4% 12.6% 1.7% 0.1% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.556 ±0.038.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3052 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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5 |
R |
18/14 6/2*(3) |
1.623 (-0.061) |
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7.3% 74.9% 86.0% 14.0% 1.7% 0.2% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.522 ±0.045.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3571 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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Position 2:
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| Pip: 196 |
5 point match
Green-White:
Score 0-0 |
| Pip: 172 |
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| # |
Ply | Move | Equity |
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1 |
R |
23/18* 10/9 |
0.906 |
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7.1% 43.2% 72.3% 27.7% 4.2% 0.3% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.903 ±0.057.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 1623 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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2 |
R |
23/18*/17 |
0.876 (-0.029) |
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6.5% 43.7% 71.3% 28.7% 4.4% 0.3% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.880 ±0.058.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2094 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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3 |
R |
9/3* |
0.858 (-0.048) |
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8.4% 41.6% 70.5% 29.5% 5.3% 0.2% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.855 ±0.049.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 2442 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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4 |
R |
23/18* 9/8 |
0.838 (-0.068) |
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6.4% 41.3% 70.6% 29.4% 4.3% 0.1% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.846 ±0.060.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 1707 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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5 |
R |
23/18* 22/21 |
0.825 (-0.080) |
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7.1% 42.3% 70.2% 29.8% 5.1% 0.3% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.844 ±0.050.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 3321 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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6 |
R |
24/18* |
0.780 (-0.126) |
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7.3% 38.8% 69.2% 30.8% 4.5% 0.3% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.798 ±0.056.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
144 games (equiv. 1813 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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Position 3:
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| Pip: 99 |
5 point match
Green-White:
Score 0-0 |
| Pip: 30 |
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| # |
Ply | Move | Equity |
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1 |
R |
17/9 |
1.313 |
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0.2% 38.0% 91.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.217 ±0.009.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
576 games (equiv. 21972 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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2 |
R |
17/11 3/1 |
1.230 (-0.083) |
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0.2% 33.5% 90.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% |
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95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 1.153 ±0.009.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
576 games (equiv. 21060 games),
played 3-ply (precise),
random seed, with race database.
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1.
| Subject: |
Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #70 |
| From: |
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| Date: |
28 Mar 2006 19:37 EST
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1.) 18/2* 2.) 9/3* Keep the blitz going, don't allow that anchor on the three-point. 3.) 17/9 I thought this would be a trade-off for leaving more shots vs. being closer to home, but it seems that 17/9 is better both ways. 2.
| Subject: |
Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #70 |
| From: |
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| Date: |
28 Mar 2006 23:54 EST
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#1) 44:6/2(3) 18/14 #2) 51:23/18 22/21 #3) 62:17/11 11/9 , sometimes you have to risk big to win big 3.
| Subject: |
Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #70 |
| From: |
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| Date: |
30 Mar 2006 08:03 EST
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1)18-2 2)23-18,22-21 3)17-11,3-1 4.
| Subject: |
Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #70 |
| From: |
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| Date: |
30 Mar 2006 09:40 EST
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1) 18/2*. with so many on the 7 and 8 and the 2 stragglers it doesnt seem right to switch points. 2) 23/18*, 9/8. priming, not blitzing. 3) 17/8. As FDR points out it less shots AND closer to home. 5.
| Subject: |
Re: Backgammon Brain Busters #70 |
| From: |
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| Date: |
12 May 2006 17:37 EST
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I think another play needs to be rolled out for #1: 44: 6/2(2) 13/9 7/3 All of the current choices either leave a blot on the 2 point or put 3 men there. I would rather not let him make the 2 pt by gaining time with a hit there, but take the chance on the 6 point.
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