This is an example of the Jacoby Paradox. The "paradox" comes from the fact that a decrease in black's cubeless winning chances turns the position from no-redouble into a redouble.

This principle repeats frequently in more complex positions. Sometimes you'll come across positions during bot analysis where the correct play is the one that wins fewer games and fewer gammons and gammon losses are about the same, and you'll be trying to figure out how the heck that can be so. The answer is that the seemingly inferior position results in an efficient double the following turn (i.e. take equal to cash) in exchange for no risk, while the play that wins more does so by trading big market losses when things go well in exchange for small immediate risk of loss. It helps to think of the object of the game of backgammon as not being the first to take your checkers off, but to be able to give an efficient double. An efficient double is the same as a win.