Desperate Races

by Douglas Zare
1 February 2010


Douglas Zare

We often have to estimate the chance to win a race with a 20-25% chance to win because that's when we get doubled. A good rule of thumb is that in a race of medium length, the trailer can take for money (with about 22% chance to win) when the player on roll leads by 10% plus 2 pips. Each pip near the take/pass point is worth about 2%. This heuristic fails for more lopsided races where the trailer wins under 15%, which can be important for cube decisions in match play.

In this column, we'll see a simple, computable racing formula due to Danny Kleinman. We'll use it to analyze a checker play decision which depends on correctly evaluating two desperate races.
 

The rest of this article (15.35 K) is premium content. Please subscribe below.

GammonVillage Subscriptions:

Choose a subscription length. Your best value is the lifetime subscription.

Duration:
Price:
Expires:
3 Month Subscription
$30
15 Jan 2019
1 Year Subscription
$50
15 Oct 2019
Lifetime Subscription
$125
Never

Proceed to Step Two

We accept Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover Card and PayPal. Google Wallet available.

Article text Copyright © 1999-2018 Douglas Zare and GammonVillage Inc.

 
You must be signed in to rate articles.
List Price: $395.00Sale Price: $265.00
Join the Gammon Village Store Affiliate Program today.
Help Wanted
Backgammon Board Game Cartoon
Social Networking
Become a Fan on Facebook
Follow us on Twitter

Follow Us
U.S. Backgammon Federation
USBGF.org
The U.S. Backgammon Federation
Terms & Conditions I Privacy Policy I About Us I Contact Us I Advertise I Affiliates I Site Map