by Douglas Zare
2 December 2010
Backgammon involves weighing risks against each other. As humans, we don't have to decide how much each position is worth, only which play is best. There is a danger that we will confuse plays we usually make with plays which we are sure are right, or even with plays we are sure are right by a lot. Sometimes a more quantitative approach reveals that the unusual play is not wrong by much. It might not take a large adjustment to make the less common play correct.
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