by Steve Sax
14 August 2013
Sometimes when you attend a tournament you play well but the dice are against you and then of course there are the other times when no matter what mistakes you make you can't go wrong.
When I attended the Michigan Summer Championships earlier this month I couldn't do anything the first two days of the tournament having been eliminated from the "Michigan Masters", the doubles, the main flight of the MSC and the second chance as well.
I had one win under my belt in five matches played and that was courtesy of a bad double I gave in the first round of the MSC.
Friday evening I was in the chouette room at the Novi Sheraton talking to Mike Senkiewicz about everything from poker to global warming when tournament staffer John Carrico announced there were two spots open in the last blitz sheet of the evening; I told Mike I was going to take one of those spots and he told me he was going to take the other.
I didn't know it at the time but I was about to begin of one of the most amazing and unexpected match winning streaks I have ever had. I proceeded to win thirteen matches in a row including eight in one day (Saturday, July 6th) on the way to the semi-finals of both the Charity Blitz and the Consolation bracket of the MSC.
The title of this article is "Lucky Thirteen" as we will review thirteen positions from some of my matches during the streak. I didn't title the article "Genius Thirteen" as I made some pretty bad decisions during that stretch, but we're here to learn so damn the mistakes and let's proceed.
In the first game of my five-point blitz match with Mike he doubled me with the score 0-0 in position "Lucky 1". I thought it could easily be a take but being down 17-pips and behind a four-prime I wasn't so optimistic and the truth is I really didn't think the game was that special and wanted to play more interesting games against the backgammon legend and backgammon Giant #26.
Position Lucky 1:
|on roll, cube action?|
|Analyzed in Rollout|
|Player Winning Chances:||77.52% (G: 2.72% B: 0.09%)|
|Opponent Winning Chances:||22.48% (G: 1.19% B: 0.03%)|
|Player Winning Chances:||77.98% (G: 2.35% B: 0.08%)|
|Opponent Winning Chances:||22.02% (G: 1.03% B: 0.03%)|
|No Double:||+0.862 (-0.089)|
|Best Cube action: Double / Take|
|1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.|
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|Confidence No Double:||± 0.005 (+0.858...+0.867)|
|Confidence Double:||± 0.008 (+0.943...+0.958)|
|Double Decision confidence:||100.0%|
|Take Decision confidence:||100.0%|
|Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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Article text Copyright © 1999-2018 Steve Sax and GammonVillage Inc.