27 August 2014
There was once a wise beyond his years backgammon player who went by the nick *Stick*. He prophesied that your future backgammon play at a certain set of particular scores would be greatly assisted by following this one simple rule.
Today we set out to see if the rule holds up to testing or if we'll have a busted myth.
Let's briefly stroll through a couple of details about the score and why this may be true before looking at the problems.
Keeping all of that in mind, see what you make of these problems all pulled from actual live over the board match play of Open level players. The analysis immediately follows the problem so scroll slowly. I will not discuss the problems individually as I normally due but after the problems will address the big question again.
|on roll, cube action?|
|Analyzed in Rollout||No double||Double/Take|
|Player Winning Chances:||74.40% (G:32.87% B:6.84%)||74.02% (G:33.27% B:11.12%)|
|Opponent Winning Chances:||25.60% (G:4.21% B:0.31%)||25.98% (G:4.22% B:0.41%)|
|No double:||+0.835||±0.018 (+0.817..+0.853)|
|Double/Take:||+0.769 (-0.065)||±0.026 (+0.743..+0.795)|
|Best Cube action: No double / Take|
|Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.1%|
|1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.|
Dice Seed: 67903694
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|Double Decision confidence:||100.0%|
|Take Decision confidence:||100.0%|
|Duration: 53 minutes 10 seconds|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
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